* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/27/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 49 58 65 67 69 67 64 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 49 58 65 67 69 67 64 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 43 50 59 69 76 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 5 6 7 10 11 10 4 4 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -2 0 0 -1 0 0 -5 -6 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 332 350 15 345 339 28 43 76 97 102 204 275 270 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 143 143 144 143 144 144 145 145 147 149 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 66 65 67 68 67 62 62 62 62 56 51 45 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 14 13 12 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 53 54 57 56 51 39 28 18 6 0 6 3 11 200 MB DIV 52 54 65 80 74 52 29 -7 -11 -5 4 -29 -17 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -8 -11 -10 -6 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1030 1045 1076 1108 1146 1238 1332 1422 1484 1528 1559 1614 1712 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.5 LONG(DEG W) 157.9 159.1 160.2 161.0 161.8 163.1 164.2 165.2 165.9 166.5 167.1 167.9 169.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 20 19 22 24 32 40 43 43 43 38 31 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 7. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 33. 40. 42. 44. 42. 39. 36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/27/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/27/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##