* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/27/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 28 35 39 45 46 46 47 45 38 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 28 35 39 45 46 46 47 45 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 26 26 27 29 31 32 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 12 8 7 1 2 1 5 7 2 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -4 -6 -4 2 -1 -3 1 4 9 6 SHEAR DIR 280 278 271 296 329 180 133 91 131 149 227 208 244 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 136 134 129 128 126 127 127 127 128 127 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.4 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 65 64 63 64 69 72 75 75 70 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 15 16 18 17 17 18 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR 17 18 17 21 26 31 36 37 35 29 31 23 22 200 MB DIV -9 4 11 47 64 114 111 95 42 41 45 29 -1 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 0 LAND (KM) 1710 1636 1563 1478 1393 1240 1116 1002 907 822 755 662 548 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 140.6 141.4 142.1 142.9 143.7 145.2 146.4 147.5 148.5 149.4 150.1 151.1 152.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 7 9 10 4 2 2 4 3 3 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 7. 10. 9. 9. 10. 11. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. 5. 9. 15. 16. 16. 17. 15. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/27/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/27/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##