* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082014 07/27/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 70 70 65 57 49 37 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 70 70 65 57 49 37 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 69 71 70 63 54 45 38 32 27 23 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 14 8 12 13 9 19 27 27 22 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 7 6 7 0 2 2 -8 -8 -4 -2 -8 SHEAR DIR 277 253 245 281 299 199 176 180 345 354 345 333 327 SST (C) 29.7 29.2 28.5 27.5 26.5 24.9 24.0 23.5 22.8 22.6 22.4 22.3 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 158 151 141 130 112 102 97 89 87 85 83 83 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 7 6 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 61 62 59 57 58 55 55 50 44 39 35 33 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 19 19 16 16 14 12 12 9 8 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -13 -13 -20 -26 -31 -35 -32 -47 -44 -44 -41 -43 200 MB DIV -7 42 41 11 1 9 -9 16 -48 -36 -65 -56 -39 700-850 TADV 6 4 3 6 5 9 1 7 -1 1 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 604 553 525 545 572 639 732 819 941 1086 1242 1373 1487 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.2 18.9 19.7 20.4 21.6 22.5 23.1 23.5 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.6 112.7 114.0 115.2 117.5 119.4 121.3 123.1 124.8 126.5 127.9 129.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 13 11 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 10 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -8. -11. -14. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -2. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -13. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 10. 10. 5. -3. -11. -23. -35. -49. -57. -65. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082014 HERNAN 07/27/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 HERNAN 07/27/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##