* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/27/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 41 50 57 62 64 61 54 51 49 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 41 50 57 62 64 61 54 51 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 36 40 43 43 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 10 7 7 7 9 7 3 7 8 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -2 -1 -1 1 -3 -1 0 7 5 1 1 SHEAR DIR 1 11 346 337 350 21 30 82 199 217 234 226 237 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 141 141 139 139 138 137 136 136 138 139 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.6 -51.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 67 64 63 62 55 51 44 46 44 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 15 15 15 17 18 17 18 17 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 48 49 51 43 34 24 23 25 25 33 37 27 29 200 MB DIV 75 113 136 123 115 58 4 -5 -2 13 -21 -24 -30 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -9 -8 -6 -5 -2 0 3 5 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1014 996 988 999 1017 1051 1100 1133 1164 1157 1166 1187 1223 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 157.2 158.1 158.9 159.7 160.4 161.6 162.6 163.4 164.0 164.4 164.8 165.4 166.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 27 21 15 13 13 12 11 12 15 17 21 26 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 9. 7. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 25. 32. 37. 39. 36. 29. 26. 24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/27/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/27/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##