* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/27/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 32 38 44 49 51 51 50 48 49 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 32 38 44 49 51 51 50 48 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 27 26 27 30 33 37 39 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 9 3 7 5 5 5 5 6 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -5 -5 -1 -3 -4 -5 -1 1 0 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 286 288 306 309 339 135 39 113 75 5 332 267 280 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 135 133 132 129 129 129 128 129 128 128 126 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.8 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 62 64 66 66 67 68 67 73 72 71 68 69 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 13 15 16 18 17 17 16 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 9 4 4 9 18 33 34 31 27 64 35 40 38 200 MB DIV 8 24 50 47 60 118 94 94 38 52 5 2 39 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1560 1485 1411 1335 1259 1120 1016 914 817 732 648 556 478 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 142.2 143.0 143.7 144.5 145.2 146.6 147.6 148.6 149.7 150.7 151.6 152.6 153.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 10 7 4 2 2 4 5 6 6 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 10. 9. 8. 9. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 14. 19. 21. 21. 20. 18. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/27/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/27/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##