* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082014 07/27/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 70 71 71 62 52 42 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 69 70 71 71 62 52 42 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 70 69 67 58 50 43 36 31 25 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 5 8 12 12 11 32 28 23 24 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 6 8 3 1 0 -4 -12 0 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 268 267 271 257 203 196 194 297 340 343 326 291 281 SST (C) 29.2 28.4 27.5 26.6 25.6 24.1 23.5 22.9 22.5 22.3 22.2 22.2 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 150 140 131 120 104 97 90 86 84 83 82 81 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.3 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 59 57 53 53 46 44 37 34 31 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 16 16 16 13 11 9 8 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -8 -14 -23 -17 -33 -30 -49 -52 -60 -46 -37 -49 200 MB DIV 35 54 9 0 11 11 -18 -24 -40 -45 -32 -12 -27 700-850 TADV 10 9 10 8 11 5 0 2 0 2 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 548 523 538 567 580 693 766 852 971 1122 1323 1452 1500 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.1 22.4 23.2 23.7 23.9 24.0 23.9 23.9 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.8 113.9 115.1 116.3 118.7 120.7 122.2 123.7 125.4 127.5 128.9 129.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 11 9 7 7 9 8 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 10 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -11. -16. -20. -23. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. -1. -5. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 6. 6. -3. -13. -23. -37. -51. -63. -71. -77. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082014 HERNAN 07/27/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 HERNAN 07/27/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##