* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/28/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 51 57 61 60 57 52 48 44 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 51 57 61 60 57 52 48 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 31 34 39 44 46 47 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 9 9 10 9 10 7 7 11 13 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -3 -5 -5 -3 -5 0 2 4 5 2 SHEAR DIR 22 1 356 353 20 46 89 136 180 217 238 232 251 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 142 142 141 140 140 140 140 139 141 141 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 69 70 68 66 66 64 60 57 48 46 42 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 15 17 18 17 16 16 14 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 55 50 41 35 27 32 31 32 26 37 27 31 28 200 MB DIV 126 127 101 93 76 40 -2 5 3 -9 -9 -10 -15 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -7 -8 -7 -4 -1 1 4 1 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 1043 1051 1066 1086 1112 1163 1211 1256 1252 1260 1284 1314 1364 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 158.7 159.5 160.2 161.0 161.7 162.9 163.9 164.8 165.7 166.5 167.3 168.1 169.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 18 18 18 19 20 25 31 30 24 19 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 32. 36. 35. 32. 27. 23. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/28/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/28/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##