* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/28/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 32 35 42 49 53 54 52 50 48 46 V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 32 35 42 49 53 54 52 50 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 27 28 30 34 37 39 40 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 14 8 5 9 5 7 5 6 4 5 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 0 -3 -2 -3 -3 1 3 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 298 307 335 44 95 61 74 106 114 198 269 241 212 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 131 130 130 129 128 128 127 127 127 127 125 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 67 68 69 71 68 69 73 71 70 70 70 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 13 13 15 17 18 17 17 18 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 10 23 29 34 40 37 23 17 13 21 24 200 MB DIV 27 44 31 55 59 89 90 59 34 28 12 37 58 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1429 1365 1301 1242 1184 1056 984 899 807 719 656 542 398 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 143.5 144.2 144.8 145.4 146.0 147.2 147.9 148.7 149.6 150.5 151.2 152.4 153.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 5 3 2 2 2 4 4 3 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 11. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 23. 24. 22. 20. 18. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/28/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/28/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##