* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082014 07/28/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 67 66 63 54 44 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 67 67 66 63 54 44 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 67 65 62 54 46 39 33 27 22 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 11 8 6 12 7 14 19 25 14 24 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 5 0 0 0 2 -6 -2 -5 -1 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 254 273 283 258 203 171 158 350 347 338 312 287 281 SST (C) 28.6 27.7 26.9 25.8 24.8 23.7 23.3 22.6 22.2 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 142 134 123 112 100 94 87 83 79 80 80 80 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 59 58 60 59 57 54 53 45 39 35 33 30 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 16 15 13 11 10 8 6 5 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -19 -30 -29 -43 -44 -38 -60 -47 -47 -44 -49 -51 200 MB DIV 31 0 -7 -6 17 -1 6 -24 -40 -34 -20 -16 -25 700-850 TADV 4 10 14 10 9 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 514 522 557 559 601 692 775 892 1029 1160 1288 1392 1459 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.1 21.8 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.3 24.3 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.6 114.7 116.0 117.2 119.4 121.1 122.8 124.5 126.0 127.3 128.5 129.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 14 12 10 8 8 7 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -8. -14. -20. -23. -26. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -16. -17. -18. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -2. -11. -21. -32. -45. -57. -66. -74. -80. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082014 HERNAN 07/28/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 HERNAN 07/28/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##