* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 07/28/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 49 58 64 68 70 72 74 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 49 58 64 68 70 72 74 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 30 35 42 50 59 66 69 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 5 7 11 6 8 4 4 13 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 7 6 9 9 7 5 3 1 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 115 91 72 62 26 29 25 51 283 255 228 203 203 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.3 26.7 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 127 124 122 119 118 118 123 127 128 129 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 128 124 122 120 118 118 123 126 126 127 130 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.4 -54.7 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 62 61 54 53 49 51 48 47 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 6 20 31 35 30 26 15 19 13 6 -3 -6 200 MB DIV 45 36 55 90 78 36 45 -21 -4 5 39 43 73 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -3 -14 -10 -11 -8 -10 -2 -5 1 LAND (KM) 1567 1691 1654 1614 1587 1553 1315 1129 978 902 849 631 526 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.3 13.8 14.4 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 31.2 32.5 33.7 35.0 36.3 39.1 42.1 45.2 48.2 51.1 53.8 56.5 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 13 11 7 2 3 12 11 19 27 27 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 29. 38. 44. 48. 50. 52. 54. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 07/28/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 07/28/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)