* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/28/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 42 50 57 60 56 50 45 42 40 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 42 50 57 60 56 50 45 42 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 42 48 50 49 47 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 10 13 12 7 4 4 8 14 16 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 0 -4 -6 -5 0 0 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 1 338 354 12 30 43 105 212 212 241 248 258 258 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 143 143 141 140 140 140 141 141 141 140 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 65 63 62 58 55 48 48 48 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 13 15 15 15 14 13 11 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 52 44 38 27 29 21 20 17 17 21 16 21 17 200 MB DIV 131 112 99 65 45 0 2 13 -4 -7 0 -7 -11 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -4 -4 -4 -1 0 2 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1111 1128 1150 1170 1193 1236 1289 1296 1291 1313 1334 1379 1439 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 160.1 160.8 161.4 162.1 162.7 163.8 164.9 165.8 166.7 167.6 168.5 169.5 170.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 27 27 26 25 29 35 30 22 19 19 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 25. 32. 35. 31. 25. 20. 17. 15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/28/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/28/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##