* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082014 07/28/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 52 48 37 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 52 48 37 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 55 52 49 42 35 30 25 21 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 11 6 18 8 10 15 18 13 14 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 2 0 4 -2 0 -1 0 1 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 274 277 252 224 178 167 226 11 347 359 342 307 274 SST (C) 27.6 26.7 25.8 24.9 24.1 23.5 22.8 22.3 22.1 22.1 21.9 21.8 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 132 123 113 104 97 89 83 81 80 78 77 78 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.8 -52.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 3 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 57 58 59 58 55 54 48 46 39 39 37 35 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 15 13 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -33 -30 -35 -39 -30 -47 -54 -62 -60 -58 -65 -63 200 MB DIV 1 -2 7 26 36 -8 -22 -36 -52 -39 -31 -7 -20 700-850 TADV 14 15 14 13 7 3 4 0 2 0 1 3 4 LAND (KM) 553 583 589 627 687 736 808 888 992 1085 1170 1270 1349 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.7 22.4 23.4 24.0 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.5 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 113.9 115.1 116.2 117.4 118.6 120.5 121.9 123.0 124.2 125.2 126.1 127.2 128.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -9. -15. -20. -23. -25. -27. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -12. -23. -31. -41. -51. -60. -67. -72. -76. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082014 HERNAN 07/28/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 HERNAN 07/28/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##