* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 07/28/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 25 23 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 32 33 29 25 15 13 18 29 36 38 39 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -7 -7 -3 -1 0 1 1 0 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 299 300 307 316 320 335 303 265 257 265 263 261 255 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.4 24.9 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 130 129 128 125 122 117 111 110 111 112 114 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 64 62 59 57 56 56 55 53 53 49 43 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -23 -18 -5 10 37 59 53 40 24 18 2 -33 200 MB DIV -12 -6 0 -5 5 44 66 45 28 13 3 12 23 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 0 2 4 6 -1 8 4 LAND (KM) 2293 2214 2135 2046 1957 1745 1515 1293 1094 916 754 599 445 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.4 16.2 17.1 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.1 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 133.8 134.6 135.3 136.2 137.0 138.9 140.9 142.8 144.5 146.1 147.6 149.1 150.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 9 10 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 3 2 11 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 15. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -15. -20. -26. -32. -39. -44. -48. -50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 07/28/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 07/28/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##