* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 07/28/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 34 42 49 56 61 64 66 68 68 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 34 42 49 56 61 64 66 68 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 31 35 40 46 53 59 62 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 13 17 14 17 8 14 13 13 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 4 3 6 5 3 -2 -2 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 47 48 62 51 38 29 13 5 333 266 255 245 250 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 130 127 125 124 126 127 127 129 132 134 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 132 128 126 125 128 128 127 129 131 132 135 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 6 6 8 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 63 60 57 54 51 51 49 47 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 19 29 36 40 36 20 11 2 -2 -11 -17 -29 200 MB DIV 38 71 93 79 34 52 39 0 -14 20 41 29 7 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -8 -14 -15 -21 -12 -9 -8 0 -3 6 LAND (KM) 1657 1602 1560 1526 1507 1364 1150 1005 915 911 736 632 525 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.9 11.4 12.1 12.9 13.8 14.7 15.8 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 32.5 33.9 35.2 36.6 37.9 40.9 43.9 46.9 49.9 52.7 55.5 58.2 60.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 14 7 3 2 2 27 13 28 27 31 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 22. 29. 36. 41. 44. 46. 48. 48. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 07/28/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 07/28/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)