* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/28/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 48 50 49 47 46 46 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 48 50 49 47 46 46 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 42 44 44 42 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 13 16 14 13 10 11 15 13 12 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 1 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 60 40 50 69 88 122 159 197 224 257 239 245 248 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 145 145 145 144 146 146 147 147 147 147 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 66 66 59 54 48 46 43 48 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 45 32 28 25 15 12 12 24 22 26 23 15 200 MB DIV 94 42 29 16 -4 -18 -14 -14 -20 -23 -5 16 -7 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1217 1242 1269 1301 1336 1398 1444 1466 1507 1572 1637 1706 1795 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 161.4 162.0 162.6 163.3 163.9 165.1 166.2 167.3 168.4 169.6 170.7 171.8 172.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 41 43 41 41 43 42 43 33 21 20 25 35 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -4. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 23. 25. 24. 22. 21. 21. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/28/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/28/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##