* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/28/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 45 46 45 43 41 40 40 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 45 46 45 43 41 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 24 25 27 28 29 29 28 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 3 3 1 4 3 4 10 13 18 20 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -5 -4 -5 -5 -3 0 -2 -5 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 324 354 44 101 65 182 243 192 213 227 243 240 237 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 129 128 129 128 128 126 127 128 128 128 131 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 67 67 69 69 67 68 71 69 66 62 61 59 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 14 14 14 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 27 35 39 52 50 62 60 43 36 22 32 33 45 200 MB DIV 34 57 66 87 102 56 56 29 47 38 56 40 46 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -3 -2 0 1 2 2 2 0 3 6 LAND (KM) 1225 1133 1041 969 899 783 707 630 563 479 346 211 214 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.5 14.8 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.3 17.0 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 145.6 146.4 147.2 147.9 148.6 149.6 150.3 150.8 151.4 152.3 153.8 155.5 157.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 4 6 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 1 1 1 19 14 10 16 1 2 12 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 20. 21. 21. 18. 16. 15. 15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/28/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/28/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##