* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082014 07/28/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 43 38 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 51 48 43 38 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 51 48 45 41 35 30 26 22 18 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 15 16 10 16 13 21 16 20 21 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 1 1 2 1 -7 0 0 1 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 277 241 225 226 208 198 344 359 3 3 334 289 276 SST (C) 26.7 25.8 25.0 24.3 23.9 23.2 22.7 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 123 114 106 102 93 87 85 86 87 87 88 88 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 57 58 55 49 45 44 40 37 34 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 12 11 11 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -26 -31 -44 -41 -38 -64 -64 -72 -71 -70 -64 -62 200 MB DIV 6 13 21 7 -23 0 -31 -46 -35 -31 -39 -21 -27 700-850 TADV 18 16 13 8 1 5 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 LAND (KM) 591 606 656 710 727 779 888 969 1020 1104 1232 1327 1393 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.9 21.6 22.3 22.9 23.8 24.3 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.5 24.7 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.2 116.5 117.7 118.8 119.8 121.4 123.0 124.0 124.5 125.4 126.8 128.0 129.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 10 8 6 4 3 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -14. -18. -20. -20. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -12. -17. -24. -33. -42. -52. -59. -65. -69. -73. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082014 HERNAN 07/28/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 HERNAN 07/28/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##