* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 07/28/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 29 35 40 51 61 71 81 85 90 91 94 V (KT) LAND 20 24 29 35 40 51 61 71 81 85 90 91 94 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 30 35 42 50 61 73 81 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 16 20 17 17 22 6 8 5 2 9 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 0 2 1 -3 0 -1 -1 0 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 87 57 49 47 42 42 50 21 48 240 107 225 145 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 128 125 125 125 128 129 129 130 131 134 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 130 127 126 126 129 130 128 129 129 131 132 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.0 -54.5 -54.0 -52.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -52.7 -53.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 58 58 58 54 55 50 46 45 42 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 12 13 15 16 16 18 20 22 22 22 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 20 33 39 41 35 22 0 10 7 3 0 -21 -22 200 MB DIV 90 107 76 44 47 56 -4 -6 13 46 49 47 54 700-850 TADV 3 -2 -6 -8 -9 -9 -10 -7 -8 -6 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 1569 1520 1485 1475 1465 1238 1068 931 861 843 733 620 650 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 11.2 11.8 12.5 13.2 14.2 15.3 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 33.8 35.2 36.5 37.9 39.2 42.1 44.8 47.6 50.2 52.8 55.2 57.6 59.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 8 3 2 3 6 28 15 28 25 39 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 16. 16. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 31. 41. 51. 61. 65. 70. 71. 74. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 07/28/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 07/28/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED