* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/28/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 32 35 36 35 33 31 30 29 29 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 32 35 36 35 33 31 30 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 29 31 33 32 29 26 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 13 14 12 12 12 9 12 15 14 15 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 0 -2 -2 0 4 5 4 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 37 56 69 85 96 155 219 220 239 251 243 239 259 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 145 145 145 146 147 148 148 148 148 148 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 65 64 58 54 48 47 44 48 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 29 28 24 10 6 15 16 20 20 26 26 26 200 MB DIV 51 25 26 1 -10 -18 -22 -12 -40 -3 4 15 -2 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 0 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1269 1304 1343 1377 1413 1455 1493 1537 1606 1675 1761 1846 1944 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 162.6 163.3 164.0 164.7 165.3 166.6 167.9 169.1 170.4 171.7 173.0 174.3 175.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 41 41 43 42 42 41 26 20 23 38 45 47 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/28/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/28/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##