* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082014 07/28/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 35 31 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 35 31 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 36 33 30 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 18 17 15 13 25 21 17 19 21 27 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 0 -2 -9 -3 3 -4 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 242 231 223 209 211 287 343 354 356 325 301 270 276 SST (C) 25.7 24.8 24.2 23.8 23.4 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 23.1 23.1 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 112 106 101 96 89 88 88 89 90 92 92 91 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 59 59 57 59 56 52 50 43 41 38 35 32 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 13 12 12 11 9 7 6 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -33 -44 -36 -28 -52 -69 -78 -86 -72 -73 -59 -58 200 MB DIV 22 19 0 -29 -20 -37 -27 -44 -29 -31 -19 -39 -26 700-850 TADV 14 13 7 1 7 7 0 2 0 2 4 2 4 LAND (KM) 617 679 742 768 807 913 993 1066 1136 1248 1413 1513 1626 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.0 24.0 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.7 118.0 119.3 120.4 121.5 123.1 124.0 124.8 125.6 126.8 128.5 130.1 132.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 10 6 4 4 5 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -12. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -18. -26. -36. -45. -54. -59. -65. -67. -70. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082014 HERNAN 07/28/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 HERNAN 07/28/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##