* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 07/29/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 36 41 46 54 62 70 76 80 80 81 82 V (KT) LAND 25 30 36 41 46 54 62 70 76 80 80 81 82 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 36 42 49 56 66 74 80 82 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 21 18 15 22 11 10 1 7 15 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 3 0 1 0 1 0 -4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 61 55 51 45 42 35 53 3 192 249 203 225 193 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 126 124 124 125 128 129 129 130 132 136 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 129 127 125 124 126 128 129 129 130 131 134 135 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.5 -54.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 65 63 59 57 58 59 55 55 52 46 44 42 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 14 14 15 16 18 19 21 19 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 41 36 34 20 6 7 8 -9 -20 -32 -47 200 MB DIV 101 79 33 41 50 17 -19 -31 -1 29 47 49 24 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -9 -12 -9 -8 -7 -5 -7 -4 -2 5 5 LAND (KM) 1479 1455 1443 1442 1383 1176 1030 918 868 889 729 686 453 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.7 11.3 12.0 12.8 13.8 15.2 16.6 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 35.4 36.6 37.8 39.1 40.3 42.9 45.5 48.1 50.7 53.4 56.0 58.8 61.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 14 8 4 2 2 3 16 21 18 28 33 25 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 14. 12. 11. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 29. 37. 45. 51. 55. 55. 56. 57. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 07/29/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932014 INVEST 07/29/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 07/29/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)