* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/29/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 31 34 34 34 34 35 35 37 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 31 34 34 34 34 35 35 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 29 29 28 27 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 18 15 16 11 9 11 8 8 7 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 3 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 49 58 73 88 106 142 193 213 258 253 253 233 234 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 147 147 146 147 148 147 149 149 149 149 149 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 64 61 54 48 48 44 46 49 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 18 18 12 0 10 11 17 15 18 17 15 15 200 MB DIV 24 18 2 -10 -12 -6 -27 -20 -4 0 21 2 -6 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1361 1393 1428 1458 1491 1527 1561 1616 1693 1776 1866 1961 2068 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.7 LONG(DEG W) 163.2 163.9 164.6 165.3 166.0 167.2 168.4 169.5 170.7 172.0 173.4 174.7 176.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 45 44 42 42 35 23 21 24 35 43 46 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/29/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/29/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##