* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/29/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 46 49 52 53 50 48 49 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 46 49 52 53 50 48 49 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 38 40 41 41 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 3 5 5 7 7 5 12 12 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -8 -6 -5 -3 -2 -1 -4 -5 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 93 106 79 122 144 126 141 151 172 240 254 237 250 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 130 131 131 133 133 133 134 135 135 135 137 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 70 71 70 68 70 68 70 69 65 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 14 12 12 12 12 13 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 35 35 32 36 32 39 29 23 15 20 18 23 34 200 MB DIV 51 67 46 19 54 46 60 68 46 30 56 53 38 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 1 LAND (KM) 1046 985 924 895 866 815 758 702 626 532 467 493 632 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 147.8 148.4 148.9 149.3 149.6 150.4 151.0 151.7 152.7 154.2 155.9 158.0 160.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 3 3 3 4 4 6 8 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 3 4 4 8 8 8 4 3 9 15 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 24. 27. 28. 25. 23. 24. 24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/29/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/29/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##