* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082014 07/29/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 31 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 31 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 32 29 26 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 16 16 18 14 22 19 20 25 32 28 36 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 5 2 1 -7 -3 1 -3 -4 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 234 216 195 201 223 318 327 326 316 312 293 275 270 SST (C) 24.7 24.1 23.7 23.3 22.9 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.7 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 111 105 100 95 90 86 85 86 87 88 90 90 87 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 58 56 58 55 52 49 44 41 37 33 30 26 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 8 6 4 4 3 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -38 -29 -27 -39 -59 -70 -77 -82 -79 -64 -58 -58 200 MB DIV 12 9 2 -10 -16 -50 -41 -38 -21 -24 -40 -20 -18 700-850 TADV 10 5 4 13 13 4 3 0 0 1 0 2 4 LAND (KM) 670 718 744 785 837 923 998 1092 1204 1318 1408 1513 1553 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.5 23.2 23.7 24.1 24.5 24.7 24.7 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 118.0 119.2 120.4 121.4 122.3 123.5 124.4 125.4 126.5 127.7 129.1 130.8 131.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 10 7 5 4 5 5 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -11. -11. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -12. -16. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -19. -28. -37. -46. -53. -58. -63. -68. -72. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082014 HERNAN 07/29/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 HERNAN 07/29/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##