* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 07/29/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 44 48 56 64 73 79 83 83 86 83 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 44 48 56 64 73 79 83 83 86 83 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 38 42 45 52 58 67 78 87 92 93 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 23 22 18 16 18 9 8 5 3 8 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 55 54 57 52 44 40 356 24 286 321 229 140 197 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 125 125 128 132 134 135 134 133 133 137 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 127 126 126 129 134 135 136 134 133 132 134 132 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 65 62 59 59 59 57 57 55 54 51 47 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 13 16 18 18 18 17 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 41 39 35 30 20 11 9 3 2 -11 -34 -43 -67 200 MB DIV 67 41 11 27 17 -14 -25 -9 24 25 21 30 16 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -10 -8 -6 -8 -7 -5 -3 3 3 9 12 LAND (KM) 1431 1419 1378 1269 1154 956 827 749 735 747 637 661 413 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.2 10.6 11.3 12.1 13.5 15.1 17.0 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 37.3 38.7 40.0 41.3 42.6 45.2 47.6 50.0 52.3 54.7 57.1 59.6 61.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 13 14 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 5 2 2 4 4 11 32 19 33 25 40 25 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 13. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 5. 5. 3. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 26. 34. 43. 49. 53. 53. 56. 53. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 07/29/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932014 INVEST 07/29/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 07/29/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED