* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922014 07/29/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 37 41 42 41 40 40 41 39 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 37 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 10 8 8 6 10 11 10 10 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 -7 -8 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 10 10 11 15 355 326 285 269 257 262 238 240 220 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 154 154 152 151 151 151 151 151 151 150 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 61 61 62 59 60 59 60 60 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 45 24 11 6 6 -2 -12 -6 -6 -6 -2 -1 -2 200 MB DIV 47 26 20 30 14 17 18 7 36 3 7 0 -9 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2273 2309 2348 2382 2420 2496 2585 2690 2822 2958 3107 3244 3405 LAT (DEG N) 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.2 8.6 9.5 10.4 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 174.4 175.2 176.0 176.8 177.6 179.2 180.8 182.3 183.9 185.5 187.2 188.8 190.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 81 72 62 53 49 45 54 63 69 71 69 64 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 21. 22. 21. 20. 20. 21. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922014 INVEST 07/29/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922014 INVEST 07/29/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##