* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082014 07/29/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 28 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 28 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 28 26 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 20 15 16 21 25 25 28 28 31 37 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 0 -1 -3 -4 0 -7 0 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 222 203 210 225 263 314 315 318 305 303 286 259 260 SST (C) 24.1 23.7 23.3 23.0 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.4 22.6 22.8 22.8 22.6 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 105 100 95 91 88 85 84 84 86 89 89 87 83 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -53.2 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 55 58 54 52 50 47 41 38 34 31 28 23 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -35 -29 -42 -53 -68 -73 -85 -79 -78 -61 -64 -54 200 MB DIV 5 -11 -10 -9 -16 -41 -49 -31 -36 -32 -42 -10 -27 700-850 TADV 2 0 10 9 9 4 2 1 1 3 0 6 3 LAND (KM) 725 752 792 833 879 975 1058 1163 1282 1360 1453 1566 1615 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.8 25.1 25.1 24.9 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.4 121.4 122.2 122.9 124.2 125.2 126.3 127.5 128.9 130.4 132.2 133.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 7 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -9. -15. -19. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -15. -24. -34. -45. -52. -58. -64. -69. -73. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082014 HERNAN 07/29/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 HERNAN 07/29/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##