* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082014 07/29/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 13 15 22 20 22 16 28 24 30 40 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 -3 -7 -5 0 0 -5 1 -1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 199 212 241 296 325 327 336 322 315 306 282 258 261 SST (C) 23.7 23.3 22.9 22.7 22.6 22.4 22.3 22.3 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.2 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 100 95 90 87 86 84 82 82 83 83 84 82 78 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -53.3 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 58 54 52 49 48 42 38 34 33 30 27 22 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 6 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -34 -42 -57 -69 -73 -85 -82 -76 -59 -59 -49 -47 200 MB DIV -3 -22 -2 -15 -47 -38 -40 -29 -19 -38 -23 -18 -23 700-850 TADV 1 10 10 5 0 4 0 0 0 -1 2 4 7 LAND (KM) 752 793 846 890 937 1020 1121 1194 1242 1276 1320 1387 1362 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.7 24.1 24.4 24.6 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.7 26.1 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.5 122.4 123.1 123.7 124.8 125.9 126.7 127.5 128.4 129.4 130.9 131.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -6. -5. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -6. -11. -15. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -14. -25. -37. -47. -55. -60. -66. -70. -74. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082014 HERNAN 07/29/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 HERNAN 07/29/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##