* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/29/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 40 41 41 39 36 32 32 29 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 40 41 41 39 36 32 32 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 37 38 39 38 35 32 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 4 4 5 4 8 16 16 20 21 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -3 -5 -2 -3 -6 -4 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 128 137 165 157 127 128 188 220 237 232 249 246 238 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 134 135 136 136 135 133 133 134 137 140 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 71 68 67 69 71 70 67 63 60 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 8 8 8 7 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 34 36 39 41 40 25 14 12 16 23 28 28 7 200 MB DIV 31 24 14 1 -4 44 5 33 38 39 28 20 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 1 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 1031 994 958 923 891 786 676 564 458 402 459 559 609 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.5 16.2 17.1 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 148.0 148.5 148.9 149.4 149.9 151.1 152.3 153.6 155.1 156.9 159.0 161.3 163.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 4 7 11 14 8 4 5 10 14 19 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. 2. -1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/29/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/29/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##