* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/30/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 25 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 25 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 19 18 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 1 2 4 8 8 8 10 11 14 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -7 -6 -2 2 4 2 -1 -3 -3 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 158 154 185 238 244 264 280 231 239 230 220 218 235 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 139 139 139 139 140 141 143 144 146 147 148 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 60 57 55 51 48 48 48 53 54 55 54 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 6 8 9 11 13 24 20 20 19 15 31 40 46 200 MB DIV -1 7 -3 5 12 2 -2 16 -5 -17 -14 -2 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 3 LAND (KM) 1203 1223 1236 1230 1226 1228 1242 1269 1313 1375 1457 1592 1767 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 12.9 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 164.1 164.5 164.8 165.1 165.4 165.8 166.2 166.8 167.6 168.6 169.8 171.4 173.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 24 27 29 32 34 33 30 30 32 46 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -8. -11. -14. -14. -14. -12. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/30/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/30/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##