* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922014 07/30/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 39 45 48 49 50 51 52 52 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 10 6 2 4 8 8 11 11 10 13 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -5 -5 -6 -3 -1 2 3 3 5 3 1 SHEAR DIR 61 64 66 53 21 282 295 278 306 290 279 266 284 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 154 153 152 152 152 151 152 152 152 152 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 59 56 57 58 58 58 59 57 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 5 3 -3 -2 -3 -6 -1 4 1 1 8 200 MB DIV 31 16 6 -17 -11 8 4 10 7 5 13 8 -36 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2548 2573 2600 2634 2670 2759 2876 3021 3175 3337 3520 3710 3918 LAT (DEG N) 7.2 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.7 12.2 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 177.9 178.6 179.3 180.0 180.7 182.1 183.6 185.3 187.1 189.0 191.1 193.2 195.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 38 35 34 34 35 42 50 56 65 78 88 89 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 350 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922014 INVEST 07/30/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922014 INVEST 07/30/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##