* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/30/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 40 43 45 42 41 40 39 37 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 40 43 45 42 41 40 39 37 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 35 36 39 41 43 43 41 39 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 8 6 7 4 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -5 -2 -1 -4 -3 -4 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 129 130 116 119 116 109 131 208 245 202 237 241 240 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 134 135 135 136 137 137 136 135 135 136 136 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 65 65 68 69 73 71 71 67 65 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 39 42 42 39 31 19 6 11 14 23 35 44 36 200 MB DIV 32 14 -3 -9 -10 12 10 30 31 22 17 41 57 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 1 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 1009 977 946 901 857 797 715 647 593 570 573 608 685 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 148.3 148.8 149.2 149.8 150.3 151.2 152.3 153.6 154.9 156.2 157.3 158.7 160.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 6 10 13 17 11 6 7 16 24 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/30/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/30/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##