* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 07/30/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 38 45 52 57 58 60 59 61 59 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 38 45 52 57 58 60 59 61 59 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 33 35 40 46 51 55 57 57 57 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 11 10 15 14 13 19 12 19 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 1 0 -1 -3 0 1 3 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 39 42 45 44 6 2 301 276 243 217 236 232 252 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 134 134 135 136 134 134 136 139 138 143 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 137 136 137 139 136 135 135 136 134 136 136 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 60 62 59 55 50 48 49 48 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 30 21 16 17 14 12 1 -18 -38 -40 -64 -72 -96 200 MB DIV -17 -30 -26 -33 -10 12 18 4 30 41 3 21 13 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -7 -5 -5 -7 -4 1 4 6 0 5 5 LAND (KM) 1102 995 902 847 793 737 796 607 565 370 100 234 299 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 15 16 16 15 15 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 14 28 24 19 28 30 30 28 48 43 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 15. 22. 27. 28. 30. 29. 31. 29. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 07/30/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932014 INVEST 07/30/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 07/30/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)