* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/30/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 23 21 19 18 16 16 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 7 5 9 12 13 13 12 16 20 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -8 -6 -2 2 1 1 1 0 -1 -2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 171 223 251 238 232 262 254 251 226 220 212 220 213 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 140 141 142 143 144 144 145 146 148 150 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 57 52 48 46 43 43 45 49 50 49 48 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 9 12 11 10 14 23 23 29 24 28 40 44 48 200 MB DIV 2 -6 -1 0 -8 -19 0 -14 -20 -18 -12 -3 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 1255 1260 1267 1269 1272 1300 1335 1382 1433 1499 1603 1753 1949 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 165.0 165.4 165.8 166.1 166.4 167.0 167.8 168.7 169.7 170.8 172.2 173.9 176.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 34 35 34 32 30 30 32 42 54 46 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -22. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -17. -18. -19. -18. -17. -14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/30/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/30/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##