* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/30/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 37 41 41 40 38 38 38 39 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 37 41 41 40 38 38 38 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 34 35 36 36 35 33 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 11 9 9 8 8 11 8 5 5 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -1 0 -3 -7 -7 -1 -3 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 120 117 125 127 126 134 170 244 245 251 265 236 234 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 135 135 136 137 136 136 136 136 136 135 135 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 700-500 MB RH 73 70 68 66 67 66 70 72 70 68 66 64 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 52 51 48 40 35 26 23 30 33 46 51 60 46 200 MB DIV 13 0 7 23 17 22 49 63 49 29 54 43 48 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 0 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 980 938 897 862 823 746 662 605 577 575 614 678 738 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.5 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 148.7 149.3 149.8 150.3 150.8 151.9 153.2 154.3 155.5 157.0 158.8 160.1 161.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 7 8 8 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 6 10 14 16 14 6 6 11 23 13 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 7. 11. 11. 10. 8. 8. 8. 9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/30/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/30/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##