* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 07/30/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 38 45 53 58 62 64 63 66 66 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 38 45 53 58 62 64 63 66 66 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 40 47 54 59 63 64 64 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 11 12 16 12 14 10 9 16 16 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 -1 -5 -3 0 6 3 4 4 2 SHEAR DIR 39 45 43 9 360 352 314 227 233 201 237 236 280 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 136 136 137 137 135 135 138 139 141 142 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 139 138 139 141 138 136 138 137 137 134 131 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 10 12 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 62 61 57 53 50 50 48 49 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 23 17 19 20 16 12 -4 -13 -30 -28 -49 -59 -93 200 MB DIV -45 -29 -30 -12 -11 4 -5 10 37 36 8 22 17 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -5 -5 -6 -8 -3 -3 4 5 4 3 5 LAND (KM) 925 848 786 740 704 689 636 471 495 128 124 177 341 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 14 15 17 16 17 16 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 19 26 22 18 29 30 31 8 33 57 43 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 15. 23. 28. 32. 34. 33. 36. 36. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 07/30/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932014 INVEST 07/30/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 07/30/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)