* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922014 07/30/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 29 33 37 38 38 39 41 42 42 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 7 4 8 13 12 18 20 12 12 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -6 -4 -4 -5 -1 2 0 1 3 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 43 19 358 326 280 296 274 282 271 292 254 269 241 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 152 152 151 151 151 151 152 150 150 151 150 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 63 63 59 59 60 58 60 59 57 55 50 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 0 -7 -7 -1 0 4 8 12 15 4 4 1 200 MB DIV 16 -5 -3 10 17 16 8 8 14 17 -1 -18 -58 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 2429 2450 2474 2511 2551 2662 2807 2953 3104 3265 3439 3632 3848 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 9.2 9.7 10.1 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.4 13.9 14.2 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 177.8 178.5 179.1 179.8 180.5 182.0 183.8 185.6 187.4 189.3 191.2 193.2 195.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 46 47 52 57 65 77 87 91 86 73 65 61 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 34. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 17. 18. 18. 19. 21. 22. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922014 INVEST 07/30/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922014 INVEST 07/30/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##