* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/30/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 23 22 21 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 9 9 5 11 14 19 23 25 25 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 0 0 -2 0 1 1 1 2 3 6 10 SHEAR DIR 261 264 258 269 288 253 249 227 244 229 236 237 253 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 141 142 142 144 145 146 146 146 148 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 51 47 45 44 47 49 53 52 50 49 50 50 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 7 2 6 13 17 16 14 12 13 20 25 41 50 200 MB DIV -15 -20 -23 -17 -3 1 10 -10 -23 -13 -7 9 9 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 4 LAND (KM) 1285 1287 1292 1304 1318 1370 1428 1488 1571 1670 1798 1962 2157 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 165.0 165.5 165.9 166.3 166.7 167.8 169.0 170.2 171.5 172.9 174.4 176.3 178.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 4 4 5 6 6 7 6 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 32 33 32 29 30 35 50 48 43 61 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -17. -20. -22. -23. -24. -24. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -23. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/30/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/30/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##