* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/30/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 38 40 40 38 37 37 38 37 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 38 40 40 38 37 37 38 37 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 34 33 32 31 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 12 12 12 7 8 7 6 6 6 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 -2 -5 -4 -9 -5 -6 -7 -4 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 122 125 128 135 131 152 242 228 252 241 222 198 209 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 138 139 139 138 136 135 137 136 135 136 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 64 63 66 70 70 67 63 63 61 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 45 37 35 34 31 22 29 34 38 36 45 48 42 200 MB DIV 19 31 35 30 26 46 41 32 6 36 35 49 40 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 909 866 825 785 749 675 625 604 615 672 747 823 885 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 149.9 150.6 151.2 151.8 152.4 153.7 155.0 156.3 157.6 159.0 160.6 161.8 162.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 22 24 16 11 7 11 19 22 9 4 4 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 8. 7. 7. 8. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/30/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/30/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##