* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 07/30/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 33 47 61 69 73 72 74 74 72 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 33 47 61 69 73 72 74 74 72 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 30 34 39 44 50 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 10 12 12 11 8 15 8 7 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 -1 -6 0 -3 -4 -7 -5 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 298 297 318 338 352 17 21 19 24 42 73 29 298 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.1 26.2 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 150 150 148 147 144 143 142 135 126 120 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 81 83 85 85 84 84 79 77 73 72 68 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 18 22 23 24 23 23 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 14 17 20 19 23 30 28 26 17 21 16 29 26 200 MB DIV 70 71 75 76 77 118 66 53 57 48 39 77 21 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1648 1689 1734 1779 1828 1870 1911 1972 2069 2136 2234 2181 1959 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.9 12.6 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.6 16.5 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.4 120.3 121.2 122.1 123.7 125.1 126.6 128.3 130.1 132.2 134.4 136.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 27 30 28 17 10 8 7 32 11 14 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 18. 20. 21. 19. 19. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 13. 27. 41. 49. 53. 52. 54. 54. 52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 07/30/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 07/30/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##