* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 07/31/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 41 46 49 51 52 54 56 56 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 41 46 49 51 52 54 56 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 47 49 51 53 56 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 16 13 10 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -5 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 27 2 357 357 334 304 251 266 252 262 262 288 273 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 133 132 131 133 136 138 138 144 146 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 135 132 131 130 131 133 134 133 135 134 132 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 57 60 59 59 56 54 53 51 49 49 46 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 18 16 11 4 0 -22 -40 -71 -68 -79 -92 -107 -111 200 MB DIV -26 -10 -11 6 -2 -2 3 18 23 18 21 5 -16 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -6 -7 -9 -3 -5 2 2 18 16 19 15 LAND (KM) 798 762 745 746 759 777 643 651 424 191 288 345 484 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.3 13.5 14.8 16.4 17.9 19.4 21.1 22.6 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 47.9 49.0 50.1 51.2 52.2 54.4 56.7 59.2 61.7 64.3 66.7 68.7 70.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 20 17 21 27 27 37 31 29 44 46 38 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 24. 26. 26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 07/31/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932014 INVEST 07/31/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 07/31/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)