* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/31/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 38 39 39 39 39 38 38 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 38 39 39 39 39 38 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 32 32 31 31 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 10 8 6 6 3 4 4 6 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -2 -3 -5 -6 -5 0 -4 -4 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 126 132 135 132 138 200 270 202 193 198 185 208 208 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 139 139 139 139 138 138 136 137 137 137 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 63 62 69 71 72 66 62 60 59 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 40 35 32 26 18 20 24 29 33 35 38 30 19 200 MB DIV 24 27 15 16 16 37 33 39 27 37 63 62 63 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 909 874 840 797 759 696 656 653 679 731 814 915 994 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 149.9 150.5 151.1 151.8 152.4 153.7 155.2 156.6 157.9 159.2 160.7 162.2 163.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 22 25 18 11 7 13 19 15 6 3 3 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/31/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/31/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##