* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 07/31/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 36 51 62 72 72 72 71 69 66 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 30 36 51 62 72 72 72 71 69 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 31 35 39 43 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 11 12 7 14 7 8 10 4 5 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -6 -4 -2 -2 -5 -4 -3 -4 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 296 324 340 347 10 14 31 15 36 89 141 258 225 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.1 25.3 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 150 149 147 144 141 138 134 124 116 108 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -53.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.0 -52.6 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 83 84 85 84 85 82 78 75 73 71 68 66 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 13 15 20 22 24 23 22 22 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 18 21 21 24 25 30 24 22 10 6 8 11 25 200 MB DIV 79 73 75 78 99 99 71 52 58 34 66 56 23 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 -4 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 LAND (KM) 1716 1760 1807 1837 1857 1885 1908 1944 1977 2020 2090 2181 2056 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.3 13.1 14.0 15.1 16.2 17.3 18.2 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 119.9 120.8 121.6 122.4 123.1 124.4 125.6 126.9 128.4 130.1 131.9 133.6 135.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 30 27 21 12 8 6 4 8 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 13. 17. 21. 19. 18. 17. 18. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 16. 31. 42. 52. 52. 52. 51. 49. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 07/31/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 07/31/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##