* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/31/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 32 31 29 29 27 29 30 30 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 32 31 29 29 27 29 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 29 29 28 26 24 23 22 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 14 12 10 5 3 1 2 1 2 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -3 3 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 129 123 116 118 128 225 213 177 228 253 138 201 220 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 137 137 139 139 139 138 137 137 137 138 140 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 64 67 70 72 68 60 53 51 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 37 31 25 16 11 14 20 21 24 26 29 22 15 200 MB DIV 36 37 40 19 24 22 46 18 34 27 47 48 61 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 -1 1 -2 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 897 870 841 803 769 706 664 658 686 761 838 954 1062 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 149.8 150.3 150.8 151.4 152.0 153.4 154.6 156.2 157.8 159.4 160.8 162.5 164.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 16 22 20 14 8 10 18 15 5 3 4 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -3. -1. 0. 0. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/31/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/31/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##