* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 07/31/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 45 59 68 74 75 75 73 68 62 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 45 59 68 74 75 75 73 68 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 34 38 42 47 51 53 53 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 14 8 13 14 12 16 5 3 8 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -5 -2 -2 -3 -4 -6 -2 0 -6 -4 3 SHEAR DIR 322 331 340 347 7 33 38 39 45 116 232 249 242 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.4 25.4 24.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 147 147 145 142 141 137 128 117 110 107 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 84 84 82 82 82 79 76 73 71 67 66 65 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 14 16 19 22 24 24 23 24 23 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 37 36 33 31 39 31 19 5 -4 -12 -5 2 24 200 MB DIV 88 86 65 93 121 77 49 32 41 60 49 25 49 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -4 -4 -6 -5 -3 -4 0 0 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 1804 1846 1888 1915 1945 1971 1997 2035 2065 2148 2177 1974 1791 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.7 13.5 14.5 15.6 16.7 17.8 18.8 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.9 123.7 124.4 125.0 126.0 127.1 128.5 130.1 132.1 134.2 136.0 137.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 7 6 6 7 9 10 11 10 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 23 18 13 11 10 8 5 16 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 8. 14. 17. 19. 17. 18. 18. 17. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 20. 34. 43. 49. 50. 50. 48. 43. 37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 07/31/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 07/31/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##