* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 07/31/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 39 47 57 65 68 70 68 65 60 54 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 39 47 57 65 68 70 68 65 60 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 34 36 37 39 40 39 37 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 9 11 8 13 16 7 1 7 15 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -5 -3 0 1 -3 -7 -2 -2 -6 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 332 333 345 3 17 15 23 36 29 230 237 228 270 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.3 27.1 26.3 25.5 24.8 24.5 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 148 146 142 137 135 127 119 111 107 110 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -53.6 -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 -52.5 -51.6 -51.9 -50.9 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 84 82 81 80 80 77 73 68 65 62 60 56 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 17 19 22 24 25 25 25 27 27 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 20 17 16 23 28 26 18 -2 -2 1 8 25 42 200 MB DIV 84 62 91 120 107 73 39 34 40 50 59 39 -7 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -5 -4 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 3 5 LAND (KM) 1722 1756 1778 1789 1805 1831 1882 1950 2043 2190 2018 1823 1656 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.6 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 17.9 18.7 19.3 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.9 122.7 123.4 124.1 125.5 127.0 129.0 131.1 133.5 135.6 137.4 139.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 31 24 18 14 7 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 9. 13. 16. 17. 17. 18. 19. 20. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 22. 32. 40. 43. 45. 43. 40. 35. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 07/31/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 07/31/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##