* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/31/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 17 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 17 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 17 16 16 16 15 15 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 1 2 2 7 10 15 18 19 14 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 -3 -3 0 -1 0 1 2 10 11 14 SHEAR DIR 166 25 229 255 237 187 216 206 207 202 215 197 185 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 145 145 146 146 147 147 149 149 151 151 150 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 48 46 48 51 53 50 48 45 48 50 54 54 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 15 14 15 18 17 19 20 28 39 54 67 72 75 200 MB DIV -24 -14 -15 0 0 -10 -5 -11 -6 14 17 32 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 1380 1397 1417 1443 1472 1514 1597 1689 1826 1989 2174 2382 2571 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6 12.1 12.4 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 166.1 166.6 167.1 167.8 168.4 169.6 171.0 172.4 174.0 175.9 177.9 180.2 182.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 6 7 7 7 9 9 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 35 32 30 30 32 42 45 39 49 74 81 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -20. -19. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. -4. -1. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/31/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/31/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##