* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/31/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 32 36 38 41 42 42 41 42 46 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 32 36 38 41 42 42 41 42 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 29 30 31 33 36 37 38 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 11 6 2 3 4 4 3 5 4 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 -2 -7 -6 -2 -3 -2 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 118 117 123 141 181 116 112 114 178 192 204 168 114 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 139 139 140 139 140 141 143 146 149 150 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 63 66 67 68 72 68 65 60 60 57 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 19 19 14 23 21 24 16 22 16 15 9 200 MB DIV 35 23 26 33 21 31 8 8 9 19 23 48 28 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 0 2 0 1 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 832 797 765 737 717 702 715 829 1026 1201 1300 1465 1668 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 150.8 151.4 151.9 152.7 153.4 155.1 157.0 159.6 162.4 164.9 167.0 169.6 172.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 9 11 13 13 11 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 15 11 8 22 24 4 8 16 27 33 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 12. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/31/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/31/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##