* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 07/31/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 31 38 44 49 50 53 54 58 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 25 31 38 44 49 50 53 54 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 25 28 32 35 38 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 20 20 20 19 16 14 9 7 4 2 7 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 6 4 2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 51 66 69 76 74 78 79 86 90 142 151 194 166 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.0 26.9 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 143 143 144 142 135 135 140 140 138 137 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 68 67 63 58 53 49 48 48 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 13 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 59 48 40 29 22 31 41 52 47 48 45 43 37 200 MB DIV 66 71 74 48 32 23 8 23 9 16 17 41 42 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 2244 2139 2035 1917 1799 1551 1302 1039 795 594 560 660 806 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 135.6 136.7 137.7 138.9 140.0 142.5 145.1 148.0 151.1 154.3 157.5 160.3 163.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 14 15 15 16 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 8 10 11 18 11 9 17 7 25 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 16. 16. 15. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 30. 33. 34. 38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 07/31/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 07/31/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##