* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/01/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 40 41 43 44 47 50 54 59 61 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 40 41 43 35 39 41 45 50 52 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 41 41 43 44 37 40 44 51 60 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 17 15 16 13 9 13 7 2 10 9 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 -2 3 -4 0 -1 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 297 283 275 261 253 276 226 282 261 298 188 201 232 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 135 135 137 138 139 142 145 150 149 145 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 139 139 139 140 139 138 139 140 135 127 122 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 53 54 52 51 51 54 52 54 56 56 58 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -1 -13 -12 -12 -12 -5 -37 -49 -98 -70 -48 -32 200 MB DIV 2 8 -2 13 15 21 41 -11 19 19 33 18 19 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -4 -4 -2 0 -2 5 0 1 5 2 2 LAND (KM) 657 549 422 343 369 295 92 -75 123 249 419 337 323 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 18 17 18 17 16 14 13 12 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 30 30 29 40 38 57 76 17 11 59 35 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 19. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)